Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Republican "lining the pockets of their friends and relatives"

The Sacramento Bee's Daniel Weintraub suggests that the people of California would be better served by a Democrats take over of congress this fall.
California's politicians chronically complain that the state is getting shortchanged by the power brokers in the nation's Capitol. But if the influential Republicans who represent the Golden State in Washington, D.C., would spend as much time working for their constituents as they do lining the pockets of their friends and relatives, California might be getting a better shake in the national budget[...]

The nation's voters might elect enough Democrats this fall to end Republican control of Congress. If that happens, a lot of California congressmen will lose their powerful positions in control of the public purse. But California won't lose much.

Because those lawmakers have not been doing much to help the people they were elected to represent.


Monday, June 26, 2006

Rush, Erectile Dysfunction

No matter how down and serious you might be, when you combine the name "Rush Limbaugh" and the term "erectile dysfunction" in the same sentence you are going to laugh.

Apparently, Rush is now addicted to Viagra as well as "hillbilly heroin" (OxyContin). At least now we know what Rush and "Big Dick" Cheney discuss when they are running commercials on Rush's radio show.

Sunday, June 25, 2006

Brian Bilbray - Cunningham Lite

Last week newly sworn representative, Brian Bilbray, was given the chance to speak for the residents of the 50th district. Bilbray's votes were just what one would expect of a former lobbyist and career politician.

Bilbray voted to keep over 1500 "earmarks" in a pork filled Appropriations bill, instead of removing the "earmarks" and sending the bill to the President absent the load of pork.
Bilbray, 55, recently elected to finish the term of imprisoned former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham, was sworn in June 13. The next day, the Carlsbad Republican joined a majority of House members in voting against an attempt to remove earmarks from a large spending bill, including some for the San Diego area.[...]

Andrew Roth, governmental affairs director for the conservative Club for Growth, took aim at those votes...

“How many congressmen need to be put into jail, investigated or indicted for this earmarking process?” said Roth, whose seven-year-old organization represents 35,000 members who want Washington to cut federal spending.[...]

Roth, in a subsequent interview, said Bilbray's support for the earmarks was objectionable “because during his campaign he said he was against hidden earmarks, then days after he's elected, he voted for a bill with over 1,500 earmarks, most of which were hidden.”

After a quick break, Bilbray returned to the House floor and voted to give himself a raise.
The same day as the vote on earmarks, Bilbray joined 248 other House members who rejected an attempt to force a vote on the $3,300 cost-of-living adjustment that will raise congressional pay Jan. 1 to $168,500. Congressional pay raises happen automatically each year, unless House members vote to block the increases.
Some analysts suggest that Bilbray is caught in a vise between conservatives who see him as far out of the current Republican mainstream (at least the Southern California version) and Democrats and Independents, who see Bilbray as a posturing political animal, whose sole issue is immigrant bashing.

While many observers believe Bilbray will do well in November in a rematch against Busby, political observer Jack Pitney said Bilbray's “advantage isn't so enormous that he can take the seat for granted.”

“There's still a chance there could be a big downdraft in November,” said Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. “Bush's popularity plummets, more bad things happen in Iraq, the economy goes south – the possibilities are endless.”

The problem as I see it is simple. Democrats will talk about how bad things are, but they won't bother to get off their butts and go vote in November, so carpetbagging lobbyist Brian Bilbray will continue to represent special interests and make sure that those who pay congressmen for earmarks get paid back at the taxpayers expense.

Saturday, June 24, 2006

This Might Be True, But................

Republican sleaze ball, lobbyist, Brian Bilbray, still represents California's 5oth district. It doesn't really matter if his message isn't clear. Democrats can't get the vote out to change the corrupt system, so....the corrupt system isn't going to change.

Yes. Representative Jerry Lewis (CA-41) Is A Crook

The San Diego Union Tribune continues its excellent coverage of the Republican congress of corruption. Today, Jerry Kammer takes a look at the kind of money being throw around by Jerry Lewis' friends.

The details of Lewis' corruption, his willingness to sell "earmarks" for campaign contributions and surround himself with a "family" of crooks clearly justify the Federal investigation swirling around him.

And, we must always remember that it was Lewis who oversaw convicted Republican felon Randy "Duke" Cunningham's decade of bribery and looting.

Monday, June 19, 2006

Ahhh..... Family Values - Republican Style

MySpace seems to be filled with teenagers' stories of sex, drugs and...well, more sex and booze. Wonkette shares some photo's from the family album of 50th District representive Brian Bilbray.

When the Bilbray kids aren't drinking heavily, they are suing the state of California to get out of paying out of state tuition to go to college here. It's out of state tuition, because like Bilbray himself, his kids are residents of Virginia.

Hat tip to MicroMayhem.

Sunday, June 18, 2006

Systematic Disenfranchisement of African-American Servicemembers

How long can Republicans continue to pretend that they give a damn about America or Americans? Greg Palast has the details of the Republican campaign to disenfranchise African-American service members through a process of selective discrimination designed to insure that they would be unable to vote while serving their country.

The program of destruction aimed at the democratic process was coordinated and driven from the highest levels of the Republican Party.

A confidential campaign directed by GOP party chiefs in October 2004 sought to challenge the ballots of tens of thousands of voters in the last presidential election, virtually all of them cast by residents of Black-majority precincts. Files from the secret vote-blocking campaign were obtained by BBC Television Newsnight, London. They were attached to emails accidentally sent by Republican operatives to a non-party website.[...]

Here’s how the scheme worked: The RNC mailed these voters letters in envelopes marked, “Do not forward”, to be returned to the sender. These letters were mailed to servicemen and women, some stationed overseas, to their US home addresses. The letters then returned to the Bush-Cheney campaign as “undeliverable.”

The lists of soldiers of “undeliverable” letters were transmitted from state headquarters, in this case Florida, to the RNC in Washington. The party could then challenge the voters’ registration and thereby prevent their absentee ballots being counted.

One target list was comprised exclusively of voters registered at the Jacksonville, Florida, Naval Air Station. Jacksonville is third largest naval installation in the US, best known as home of the Blue Angels fighting squandron.

When are Americans going to wake up to the fact that George Bush's Republican Party is following the philosophy and using the tactics of Hitler's National Socialists? Will we still have a country when that happens?

The San Bernardino Sun starts an examination of another member of congress exposed by the turnover of the Cunningham rock. CA-44's own Wilkes/Lowery/Lewis crony, Ken Calvert.

Calvert has connections with two people who reportedly are unindicted co-conspirators in the Cunningham case - Thomas Kontogiannis and Brent Wilkes.[...]

Also ensnared in the scandal is New York developer Kontogiannis. Cunningham helped the developer with New York prosecutors when he had legal trouble, and a mortgage company run by relatives of Kontogiannis helped finance a Virginia condo and Rancho Santa Fe house for Cunningham.

Cunningham, Kontogiannis and Calvert took a December 2004 trip to Saudi Arabia, according to the Copley News Service. Calvert's financial disclosures show a businessman, Ziyad Abduljawad, paid for the trip that was "to promote discourse and better relations between the two nations."

Ahh..Republicans. I'll give you a challenge. Find a SoCal Republican who isn't corrupt.

Saturday, June 17, 2006

Need Some Inspiration?

I've been a little depressed since my neighbors decided to send sleazy lobbyist Brian Bilbray to congress to represent me. I think I've found the motivation I need to go on.

7 Out of 10 - Not Bad For A Congressman

The whole 10 Commandments thing is a lot more complex then it seems. Apparently, during his grilling by Stephen Colbert, Representative Lynn Westmoreland (GA-8) actually managed to name as many as 7 of the the 10 Commandments. Of course, the fact that Westmoreland is co-sponsoring a bill in congress to allow the display of the Commandments in government buildings, makes his inability to actually express all of the commandments more newsworthy.

Westmoreland's office officially commented on the Congressman's inability to express or even paraphrase all of the commandments by suggesting that only a member of the clergy could, or should even have to, name all of them.

Is suspect that most Republican have a hard time with Commandments two and three.
2. "You shall not take the name of the LORD your God in vain: for the LORD will not hold him guiltless who takes his name in vain."
Let's face it. If we held Republicans in public office to the 10 Commandment standard regarding the taking of oaths. Well, there would be round the clock public stonings.

How many Republicans could count on the support of big business if they actually stood behind the requirement to cease work on the sabbath?
3. "Observe the sabbath day, to keep it holy, as the LORD your God commanded you. Six days you shall labor, and do all your work; but the seventh day is a sabbath to the LORD your God; in it you shall not do any work, you, or your son, or your daughter, or your manservant, or your maidservant, or your ox, or your ass, or any of your cattle, or the sojourner who is within your gates, that your manservant and your maidservant may rest as well as you. You shall remember that you were a servant in the land of Egypt, and the LORD your God brought you out thence with a mighty hand and an outstretched arm; therefore the LORD your God commanded you to keep the sabbath day."
No Wal-Mart runs on Sunday. In fact, no professional football on Sunday. Ditto for NASCAR. Well, the list is endless. But, remember, Republicans declare that our country is founded on the legal standards expressed in these commandments.

UPDATE: As I noted above, this whole commandment thing can be pretty complex.
4. "Remember [zachor] the Sabbath day and keep it holy" (the version in Deuteronomy reads shamor, "observe")
The seventh day of the week is termed Shabbat and is holy, just as God ceased creative activity during Creation. The aspect of zachor (remember) is performed by declaring the greatness of the day (kiddush), by having three festive meals and by engaging in Torah study and pleasurable activities. The aspect of shamor is performed by abstaining from the 39 melachot (forbidden categories of activity) on the Shabbat.

The Torah, which Moses "transmitted" from God to the Jews actually lists 613 commandments. The 10 Commandments certainly can be broken up into more than 10 or combined to number less than 10. Is God's word on the Sabbath different if we count in as his 3rd or 4th Commandment?

Don't Forget Doolittle!

Yesterday, TPM Muckraker's Paul Kiel gave us a run down on the on-going Cunningham corruption investigation that is being driven out of San Diego. The primary target of that effort is undoubtedly Brent Wilkes, but Paul also noted several others who are in the crosshairs of the Feds.
So Brent Wilkes has the most to fear. And remember that Wilkes is a big fish - who was close to Tom DeLay, DeLay bagman and superlobbyist Ed Buckham, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA), lobbyist Bill Lowery, and yes, Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA) (more on that later).
One of Wilkes' key friends in congress was omitted from Paul's list. Let's make sure that we don't forget John Doolittle (CA-4), who is up to his neck in Wilkes related dealings.

While you are checking into Doolittle, don't miss the outstanding work being done over at Dump Doolittle, where Doolittle's dealings with Jack Abramoff and the Marianas Islands. And, let's not forget some of the other Republican players in that story: Dick Pombo, Tom Delay and even Brian Bilbray.

"service to me and other members of Congress ..."

Convicted Republican felon Randy "Duke" Cunningham seemed to have a soft spot for other felons. He was close to Thomas Kontogiannis, a convicted felon, who happens to also happens to own a building on Long Island, where the Department of Homeland Security leases office space.

Now it turns out that Cunningham also had helped out someone else with a criminal past. Duke's letter of support for Christopher Baker, the president of Shirlington Limousine, is another example of the kind of work Duke did to help rehabilitate former criminals.

DHS officials claim that Duke's efforts on Baker and Shirlington's behalf had no influence on their decision to award the company its $21 million contract. In fact, if you believe DHS officials, they didn't pay much attention to any of the circumstances surrounding the awarding of the contract. It appears that it just somehow magically happened.

It just seems unusual, that Cunningham championed two businesses in their dealing with DHS and both of those businesses ended up with financially beneficial deals with DHS.

Monday, June 12, 2006

Immigration - A Key 2006 Issue

Apparently, Democrat Francine Busby was working off another script, one supplied by the DCCC, that suggested that immigration wasn't such a big deal. I think Busby had two options, one was to position herself to the right of Republican carpetbagging lobbyist Brian Bilbray; the other was to try and organize Latino voters. Busby choose neither path and Bilbray is going to be sworn in tomorrow as the representative of the 50th CD, despite the fact that he has never lived in the district.

Here is what the wingnuts say about the election.
"You don't need papers for voting."

Those effectively were the last words of the congressional campaign of Democratic candidate Francine Busby, who lost the special election last week to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R.-Calif.), who resigned from Congress after pleading guilty to bribery.

Last August, we said that immigration was going to be a key issue in the 2006 elections, but apparently the Democrats refused to believe us or Howard Dean and treated the issue as if it didn't matter to voters. Guess what DCCC, it does matter!

Sunday, June 11, 2006

Great Summary of the Lewis Crime Family Activity

At the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin, George Watson does a great job summarizing Representative Jerry Lewis' (CA-41) various criminal ventures.

Here's a quick summary via Watson's words of the highlights of the Lewis crime spree:

The Cunningham connection....

Two words: Brent Wilkes

The revolving door....

Hard to tell who worked for
Copeland Lowery Jacquez Denton & White from Lewis' staff. Oh wait, some of those folks were getting paid by the taxpayers as members of Lewis' staff at the same time they were getting pay-out or commissions from Copeland Lowery, etc.

A family tie....

Lewis' stepdaughter pulling down tens of thousands of lobbyist dollars running a PAC that took in five times as much money as it paid out.

Lewis and Lowery....

The crux of it all. Millions (maybe billions) of our tax dollars earmarked to clients of former San Diego congressman turned super-lobbyist Bill Lowery. Tens of thousands of dollars from those same clients donated to Lewis' campaign or PACs.

Jerry Lewis looked the other way while Duke Cunningham blatantly took millions in bribes for earmarking tens of millions of our dollars to companies that were set up for the express purpose of scamming the government and stealing our money. Now, all of a sudden people are realizing that Cunningham wasn't smart enough or powerful enough to pull of that sort of scam without help.

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

CA-50 Sending Sleaze to Congress for Two Decades

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 58566 49.48%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 53598 45.28%

96.2% reporting.

Busby will not garner as many votes in the run-off as she collected in the April special election. The voter turnout for the run-off election will be lower than in April.

Two months of negative advertising apparently turned voters off to the process.

CA-50 Numbers and Ramblings

Francine Busby will end up the run-off election with about the same number of votes that she received in the April 11 special election, where she pulled down 56,147 votes. Her Republican advisaries in that election garnered 67,104 votes, while Brian Bilbray is likely to end up with several thousand votes less than that in winning the run-off.

If you look at the Republican primary, the number of votes cast for all Republican candidates is roughly equal to the total number of votes that Bilbray has amassed in the run-off, which obviously is less than the number of Republican votes cast in the special election.

Republican turnout is lower than in the special election, while Democratic turnout and independent votes for Busby are roughly the same as the special election.

Considering the millions of dollars spent by candidates and their parties respectively, you have to question the value of all that effort. Busby's numbers are unchanged and Bilbray managed to hang onto enough Republicans to manage a victory.

CA-50 All Over

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 56016 49.49%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 51202 45.24%

90.2% reporting.


1:16AM UPDATE: 4635 vote gap.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 50284 49.64%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 45649 45.06%

78.4% reporting.


12:42AM UPDATE: 4321 vote gap.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 44692 49.69%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 40371 44.89%

66.2% reporting.

Chris Bowers at MyDD calls it for Bilbray, says "go to bed."


12:28AM UPDATE: 4118 vote gap.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 40123 49.82%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 36005 44.71%

56.6% reporting.


12:19AM UPDATE: 3648 vote gap.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 37593 49.67%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 33945 44.70%

51% reporting.

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

CA-50 11:53PM UPDATE

11:53PM UPDATE: 3550 vote gap.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 35505 49.67%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 31955 44.70%

46.4% reporting.

CA-50 UPDATE 11:39PM

11:39PM UPDATE: 3278 vote gap.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 33468 49.59%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 30190 44.71%

42.4% reporting.

CA-50 UPDATE 11:24PM

11:24PM UPDATE: 3300 vote gap won’t go away.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 28568 49.67%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 25605 44.52%

35.6% reporting.

CA-50 UPDATE 11:20PM

11:20PM UPDATE: Busby closed the gap a little more.. Picked up 200 votes.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 28568 49.67%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 25605 44.52%

30.2% reporting.

CA-50 UPDATE 10:53PM

10:53PM UPDATE: Busby closing the gap slightly. Picked up 400 votes.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 26637 50.02%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 23461 44.05%

24.8% of precincts reporting.

CA-50 Results - 10:37PM UPDATE


20% reporting - dominated by absentee ballots.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 24786 50.52%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 21269 43.35%

10:23 PM UPDATE:
Still looking primarily at absentee ballots. Only about 1,700 new votes added to the totals. Still as many at 10K absentee ballots outstanding.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 21602 50.33%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 18560 43.24%

GOP GOTV for Bilbray

Conservative Jon Fleischman explains why lobbyist Brian Bilbray is having so much trouble gaining traction in the heavily Republican 50th CD and why he needs so much help from his pals in Washington to convince voters in the district to vote for him.
National Republicans have already had to plow over FIVE MILLION DOLLARS into this race, and literally fly in 165 staffers and such from DC to get-out-the-vote. Which makes sense, as all of the candidates with real grassroots support in the district (you know, the ones who ran to CHANGE the direction of the Republican Congress) lost in a massively divided GOP primary, giving us Bilbray, a figurehead for the status quo. Then again, if the candidate moved to the district from the DC suburbs to run, it makes sense that his GOTV team also be from the beltway. Ridiculous.
If Fleischman can spot that Bilbray is as phony as a $3 bill, what do you think the odds are that voters in the district will be able to draw the same distinction?

After all the voted for Duke Cunningham every two years for over a decade.

Monday, June 05, 2006

666 Could It Be The Number of Opportunity for Democrats

What with tomorrow being election day and 06/06/06 aka 666 - the Number of the Beast, the Rapture Index has jumped up to the "fasten your seatbelt" level and well, for some anyway, the sky's the limit.

On the left you can see the same old electorial map that Democrats have been struggling with since 2000. The Red States Republicans kicking the Blue States Democrats around based on "values."

Well, if the Rapture comes off according to Red State "values," below is our new electorial map. OK, I admit there is some downside considering the Tribulation and all those plagues, but there appears to be a silver lining in the Rapture cloud for Democrats.

Sunday, June 04, 2006

CA-50 Stakes Are High....Or Are They?

Voters in the 50th congressional district go to the polls on Tuesday. That election, will be Democrat Francine Busby's third shot at convicted Republican felon Randy "Duke" Cunningham's seat in congress. CA-50 residents have seen a perpetual campaign for that seat waged since the 2004 election, with still another round of campaigning and voting yet to come in November.

Republicans outnumber Democrats 44% to 30% in the 50th District. So, despite general disgust with Washington and the President and Duke Cunningham's bribery conviction, voters in the 50th District are likely to elect former congressman Brian Bilbray to represent them in the Republican congress of corruption.
Nevertheless, for all the complicating factors suggesting an unusually volatile electorate, the conventional wisdom – that Bilbray holds off Busby and keeps the seat for the GOP – still seems sound. Yes, polls predict a close vote, and some have Busby in the lead. But in modern California political history, no congressional district with a solid Republican voter-registration margin has elected a Democrat – and Republicans have a huge edge in the 50th, with 44 percent of voter registration compared with 30 percent for Democrats. Bilbray's campaign was so carefully focus group-tested and scripted that there was never much of a chance he would make a catastrophic mistake that would negate this advantage, and he didn't.
Bilbray is a former congressman from South San Diego, where he also served in city government and on the county board of supervisors. Essentially, Bilbray has never lived in the district he is running to represent. In fact, his legal residence is in Virginia, where he has carried on his lobbying practice since he lost his congressional seat.

The fact that 50th District Republicans are set to elect Bilbray tells you everything you need to know about Republicans.

Republicans hate America. They hate the idea of government as public service and, in fact, thanks to wackos like Ronald Reagan and Howard Kaloogian, Republians hate the government itself.

Since they hate this country, Republicans have no qualms about sending crooks like Duke Cunningham or toadies like Brian Bilbray to congress. It gives them more reason to hate the country.

On Tuesday, Republicans will once again stick it to the United States.

Saturday, June 03, 2006

Corrupt, Immoral, Liars - Welcome to the Republican Big Tent!

Republican Jim Galley is in the Republican primary race for the California 51st CD seat.

According to the San Diego Union Tribune, Galley has managed to garner the support of many of this fellow Republicans.

Although Galley, 50, has never held elective office, his campaign Web site says he is endorsed in Tuesday's primary election by a number of current and former Republican elected officials from San Diego County.

They include former Rep. Brian Bilbray, who is running to replace imprisoned former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham in the 50th District; former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian; El Cajon Councilman Bob McClellan; and Assemblymen George Plescia and Mark Wyland. The site says Bruce Ruff, who is challenging Sheriff Bill Kolender, has also endorsed him.

To this august group, apparently, just being a Republican is enough to earn their endorsement. But, according to the UT, Galley is much more than a staunch Republican. No, the UT says that Galley is also a bigamist, a dead-beat dad and an abusive husband. There's a trio of Republican family values.

Jim Galley, who is running for Congress as a “pro-traditional family” candidate, was married to two women at the same time, defaulted on his child support payments and has been accused of abuse by one of his ex-wives.
Apparently morality is only an issue to Republicans when its a Democrat whose behavior is in question.

Why Help the Little People When You Can Rob Them?

Certainly, that seems to be the way the Republican congress of corruption looks at Americans.

Representative Jerry Lewis (CA-41) certainly figured out how to put Letitia White's work ethic to good use. Why help ungrateful and financially deficient constituents, when you can earn millions helping big corporations?

CA-50 The Voters Will Decide

The most recent SurveyUSA poll in the 50th CD race isn't good news for the Busby campaign. In a poll of 448 "likely voters," 47% indicated that they would prefer Republican lobbyist Brian Bilbray, while 45% indicated a preference for Democrat Francine Busby. Here is the SurveyUSA summary:

In a special election in California's 50th Congressional District today, 6/2/06, 96 hours till polls open, Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby are locked in a fierce firefight that could go either way, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 448 Likely Voters, conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV San Diego. 4 days until the 6/6/06 Special Election, Republican Bilbray gets 47%, Democrat Busby gets 45%. Bilbray's 2-point advantage is within the poll's margin of sampling error. Voter turnout will decide whether this critical House seat remains in Republican hands, or becomes a Democrat pick-up. Since an identical SurveyUSA KGTV-TV poll released 5/10/06, Bilbray is up 2 points, from 45% to 47%; Busby is unchanged. Bilbray wins 6:1 among Republicans. Busby wins 9:1 among Democrats. Among Independents, Busby had led by 35 points, now leads by 25 points. Bilbray's support among Independents is up from 19% to 31% in past 3 weeks. SurveyUSA's turnout model assumes 49% of Likely Voters are Republican, 34% of likely voters are Democrat, and 17% are Independent.
Bilbray's 2% advantage is not statistically significant, but what is significant is the fact that Busby's numbers remain the same in poll after poll. And, the poll numbers are consistent with her 44% actual vote count in the April special election. Busby's performance in this heavily Republican district is nothing short of phenomenal, but as polling and voting seem to indicate, somewhere around 45% is the peak level of voter support she can enjoy.

For Busby to win on Tuesday, she needs a real reversal in turnout numbers from the traditional voting pattern. According to SurveyUSA, Busby's chances depend upon getting the under 35 demographic out, while Bilbray needs to get the over 65 crowd to cast their ballots. Busby's success depends on a consistently underperforming group of voters, while Bilbray's depends on getting the most reliable group of voters to do their jobs. That does not bode well for Busby.

Bilbray leads by 14 points among voters age 65 plus; Busby leads by 20 points among voters younger than 35. The two candidates are effectively tied among voters 35 to 64. Should younger voters, historically unreliable, vote in unexpectedly large numbers: advantage Busby. Should older voters vote in disproportionately large numbers: advantage Bilbray.
There is one final notation in this equation. Busby's support has been very consistent from the special election through every poll and survey. Busby's supporters voted in the special election and will, most likely vote on Tuesday, if they haven't already sent in an absentee ballot. Bilbray on the other hand has to depend on a turnout of voters, who despite the contentious nature of the April special election, were too busy to cast a ballot then.

By SurveyUSA's calculation, 20% of "today's" Likely Voters did not vote in the 4/11/06 Primary. Among these "new" voters, Bilbray leads by 11 points, 49% to 38%.
It comes down to this for Busby, she needs a big turnout of younger voters, while seniors stay home. She needs the potential voters who sat out the special election to stay on the sidelines.

Ultimately, she needs every registered Republican and independent voter to pause before casting their vote and reflect upon the message that they will send to the nation if they ultimately choose Brian Bilbray, a career political hack turned lobbyist, who has never lived in the 50th CD and whose permanent residence is in the state of Virginia, to replace convicted Republican felon Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

Thursday, June 01, 2006

Jerry, Jerry, Jerry (redux)

Subpoena... Seems to be the word of the day when Republicans are involved.

Poor Jerry Lewis, victimized by his association with a long list of less than savory lobbyists and, of course, his direct involvement with Randy "Duke" Cunningham.