CA-50 Two New Polls
Two new CA-50 congressional race polls surfaced today. Both have similar results and both have much more immediate meaning for the crowded field of Republican challengers than they do for front running Democrat, Francine Busby.
A Lake Research poll, released today by the Busby campaign, conducted among likely voters on March 18-20, found Busby leading the pack with 39% of the projected vote.
Among her top three Republican rivals, Brian Bilbray came in at 15% with conservatives Howard Kaloogian and Eric Roach tied at 7%.
The rest of the Republican pack was far behind. Big spender Alan Uke and state senator Bill Morrow at 4% and 3% respectively.
A Datamar poll, commissioned by local CBS affiliate KFMB, was conducted four days later than the Lake poll, also among likely voters. Datamar pegged Busby at 36%, but found the top three Republicans very closely clustered. According to Datamar, Bilbray and Roach were in a near dead heat, Bilbray at 11.7% and Roach at 11.2%, with Kaloogian barely trailing these two at 10.7%.
As with the Lake poll, the remainder of the predominantly Republican field is far behind the three Republican front runners. Morrow and Uke continue their lackluster performance at 4.8% and 3% respectively.
The Datamar poll leaves 3.6% undecided, where the Lake poll asks the undecided to select the candidate to which they are leaning.
At the heart of both polls is the reality that Busby is going to dominate the field in the special election and then have to go to battle with Bilbray, Roach or Kaloogian in June. Preliminary polls show that in a head-to-head contest between Busby and either Bilbray or Roach, the contest is too close to call.
On the Republican side, it is hard to determine if the ground Roach appears to have made up between the March 18-20 Lake poll and the March 22-24 Datamar poll is real or just within the two polls margin of error.
A Lake Research poll, released today by the Busby campaign, conducted among likely voters on March 18-20, found Busby leading the pack with 39% of the projected vote.
Among her top three Republican rivals, Brian Bilbray came in at 15% with conservatives Howard Kaloogian and Eric Roach tied at 7%.
The rest of the Republican pack was far behind. Big spender Alan Uke and state senator Bill Morrow at 4% and 3% respectively.
A Datamar poll, commissioned by local CBS affiliate KFMB, was conducted four days later than the Lake poll, also among likely voters. Datamar pegged Busby at 36%, but found the top three Republicans very closely clustered. According to Datamar, Bilbray and Roach were in a near dead heat, Bilbray at 11.7% and Roach at 11.2%, with Kaloogian barely trailing these two at 10.7%.
As with the Lake poll, the remainder of the predominantly Republican field is far behind the three Republican front runners. Morrow and Uke continue their lackluster performance at 4.8% and 3% respectively.
The Datamar poll leaves 3.6% undecided, where the Lake poll asks the undecided to select the candidate to which they are leaning.
At the heart of both polls is the reality that Busby is going to dominate the field in the special election and then have to go to battle with Bilbray, Roach or Kaloogian in June. Preliminary polls show that in a head-to-head contest between Busby and either Bilbray or Roach, the contest is too close to call.
On the Republican side, it is hard to determine if the ground Roach appears to have made up between the March 18-20 Lake poll and the March 22-24 Datamar poll is real or just within the two polls margin of error.
posted by RJB at 6:02 PM
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