Friday, April 07, 2006

Latest CA-50 poll

The latest Datamar poll of the 50th Congressional District race was released today. Democrat Francine Busby remains the most popular candidate with 39% of likely voters saying that they will vote for her. 39% is far from the 50% + 1 that is required to win the seat outright, but Busby may be in striking distance of that number.

The Datamar poll is a fully automated telephone poll that targets the households of prior voters. It is easy to hang up on the poll and, believe it or not, Datamar called my house twice during the week, both times at the dinner hour, and polled whoever answered the phone. Not the best practice. The other problem with the Datamar approach is that it doesn't address absentee and early voters. I suspect that members of both of these groups would simply hang up on Datamar's electronic voice and get on with their lives.

Anyway, with that said, there is a serious race among the Republican to get the opportunity to face Busby in June, assuming that lightning doesn't strike her campaign. On the Republican side, carpetbagger millionaire Eric Roach (16.5%) has a slender 1.1% margin over carpetbagger lobbyist Brian Bilbray (15.4%). Howard "Wrong Way" Kaloogian has slipped back from the lead group with 9.5% of the potential vote. Kaloogian's woes with photos and endorsements certainly appear to have trimmed his numbers.

Two other Republican contenders, millionaire Alan Uke (4.3%) and state senator Bill Morrow (6.8%) have picked up some support, but still remain well behind the Republican leaders Roach and Bilbray.

Datamar's results are considerable less favorable for Busby than last week's SurveyUSA poll that pulsed her support at 45%. As I noted above, the Datamar approach doesn't leave me with a high level of confidence. The fact, that my home was polled twice doesn't give me a warm feeling regarding the level of control Datamar has in place to avoid double counting.

Rumor has it that the number of absentee ballots is far larger than expected and that those ballots appear to be heavily skewed towards Busby. If that is true, then a strong GOTV effort over the next three days might push her over the top and result in an outright win.