Wednesday, March 29, 2006

CA-50 Busby Surges - Watch Out for Roach's Mud Slinging

With less than two weeks to go before the 50th congressional district special election, a new poll has Democrat Francine Busby within striking distance of a stunning victory that would make her the districts new congressional representative and preclude the need for a run-off election in June.

A SurveyUSA poll released today shows Busby favored by 45% of likely voters. There has been a change of position among her chief Republican rivals, with millionaire Eric “Gonna Buy Me an Election” Roach and “truth” impaired winger Howard Kaloogian moving past early Republican front runner, Brian “Lobbyist” Bilbray.

Analysis: In a Special Primary for the U.S. House of Representatives in California's 50th Congressional District today, 3/28/06, Democrat Francine Busby tops a crowded field of Republicans, but falls just short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff June 6th. With 2 weeks to the 4/11 Primary, Busby is at 45%, trailed by Republican Eric Roach at 14%, Republican Howard Kaloogian at 12%, and Republican Brian Bilbray at 10%. Busby is supported by 85% of Democrats, half of
Independents, and 10% of Republicans. Kaloogian and Roach are each supported by 23% of Republicans. The district is heavily Republican and whichever Republican survives the Primary would be favored in a runoff, but the Democrats have a chance to capture the seat if Busby can top 50% in the Primary. Busby gets 53% among female voters. The larger the turnout among women, the better Busby's chances to avoid a runoff.

Is this Busby surge real? Are independents and undecided moving in her direction? The opportunity is there for Busby to take this thing outright. It will come down to GOTV efforts and advertising exposure over the next 12 days.

I expect to see Roach move his attacks from Bilbray to Busby over the next few days. He is the only one of the top three Republicans that can afford to change the direction of his advertising and he now has to slow Busby down to keep her from an outright win.