Wednesday, May 10, 2006

CA-50 New Poll Says It's Dead Even

A SurveyUSA poll released today finds the race for the CA-50 congressional seat tied, with Democrat Francine Busby and Republican Brian Bilbray each the preference of 45% of likely voters.

The poll represents 442 likely voters sampled May 7-9. By party affiliation 50% of the respondents considered themselves Republican, 32% Democrats and 18% independents. Bilbray is the preference of 82% of the self-described Republicans, while Busby is the preference of 95% of Democrats and 54% of independents.

One point of interest, 54% of the Republicans surveyed did not vote in the April 11 special election, where just 35% of the Democrats claimed to have not participated. Bilbray's number therefore reflect the contribution of self-described likely voters, who did not bother to fill out an absentee ballot or drop by a polling station to choose their party's candidate for the run-off. What are to odds that this group will now turn out in mass to vote for Bilbray?

This poll was taken before Eric Roach "stood down" in his primary challenge of Bilbray and before Bill Hauf alerted the media that he was seriously considering an "aggressive" challenge of Bilbray in the primary.

All in all, this poll is good news for Busby. She has moved from being slightly behind Bilbray right after the special election (although within that poll's margin of error) to a dead even tie in a heavily Republican district.