CA-50 New Poll

A new poll that gives a very comprehensive look at the congressional race in the CA-50 was made public today. The poll conducted by Competitive Edge provides extensive insight into both potential voter preferences and the key issues from the voter's perspective.

If the poll is an accurate predictor, Democratic candidate Francine Busby will garner the most votes in the April 11 Special Election, but she will fall short of the 50%+1 requirement for election and will be forced into a run-off with Republican former congressman, Brian Bilbray.

On April 11th, there will be a special election in the 50th Congressional District. If that election were held today and you had to vote, would you be voting for . . .

Francine Busby, Democrat, Trustee, Cardiff School Board 33.5%
Brian Bilbray, Republican, Immigration Reform Consultant 14.8%
Eric Roach, Republican, Businessman 7.9%
Howard Kaloogian, Republican, Charitable Trust Attorney 7.1%
Bill Morrow, Republican, California State Senator 4.7%
Alan Uke, Republican, Business Owner 3.6%
Bill Hauf, Republican, Businessman 1.5%
Chris Young, Democrat, Retired Bank Executive 1.2%
Richard Earnest, Republican, Business Entrepreneur 1.0%
Another Candidate 1.1%
Unsure (Not read) 23.4%

In a head to head race, Bilbray has a slight edge of Busby with 19% of the respondents undecided. Busby has a resounding edge over all of the other Republican hopefuls in head to head match-ups, except for Eric Roach, where she is dead even.

From an issues perspective, this group of likely voters put dealing with illegal immigration at the top of their list of congressional priorities.

Now I’m going to read you a list of issues your next member of Congress may be faced with. Please tell me which one you would like to see them working hardest on.

Stemming Illegal Immigration 21.8%
Restoring Ethics and Integrity to Government 21.6%
Improving Healthcare and Prescription Drug Benefits 15.6%
Holding the Line on Federal Spending 15.2%
Fighting the War on Terror 14.8%
Improving Local Transportation and Roads 6.7%
None of The Above / All of the Above / Unsure 3.4%

These results have to be disappointing to Bill Morrow and Howard Kaloogian. Despite their reputations as high profile conservatives, with roots in the district, more than a third of potential voters had never heard of either man.

The millionaires club of Uke, Hauf and Earnest faired even worse than the veteran politicians, with a "never heard of" response from 50% to 75% of likely voters.

There is still lots of campaigning to go and the millionaire candidates are heavily into television advertising, but it certainly looks like this is shaking out to be a two horse race between Busby, the reform minded Democrat and Bilbray, the guy who had to go to court to keep his real profession, lobbyist, from showing up on the ballot.

Poll of 802 "likely" voters.